With the Autumn Budget 2025 scheduled for 26 November, homeowners, buyers, and sellers across the UK are watching closely to see what Chancellor Rachel Reeves will announce. Budget decisions have a direct impact on property transactions, mortgage affordability, and house prices, and this year’s announcement could bring significant changes to the housing market.The statistics are compelling. 19% of sellers’ agents reported a 1% to 5% increase in offer prices for staged homes, and nearly half observed staging reduced time on market.
Most commonly staged rooms:
After last year’s Autumn Budget introduced immediate stamp duty increases and set April 2025 thresholds that are already affecting the market, speculation is mounting about what the upcoming budget might hold. Let’s explore how government budgets shape the housing market and what you should be thinking about as we approach this crucial announcement.
Why Government Budgets Matter for Property
Government budgets aren’t just about numbers in spreadsheets. The decisions made by the Chancellor directly affect your ability to buy, sell, or own property. Budget announcements can change stamp duty rates, adjust tax rules for landlords, influence interest rates, and alter the overall economic conditions that determine house prices.
The 2024 Autumn Budget delivered on 30 October brought immediate changes that reshaped buyer and seller behaviour almost overnight. Understanding these past decisions helps us prepare for what might come next.
What Happened in the 2024 Budget
Last year’s budget delivered several significant changes to the property market that are worth examining as we look ahead.
Stamp Duty Changes
The most immediate impact came from an increase in stamp duty for second homes and buy-to-let properties. The surcharge jumped from 3% to 5% effective 31 October 2024. For investors purchasing a £300,000 property, this meant an extra £6,000 in tax.
More significantly, the temporary stamp duty relief introduced in 2022 was confirmed to be ending on 31 March 2025. This means:
For first-time buyers:
- Before April 2025: No stamp duty on properties up to £425,000
- After April 2025: No stamp duty on properties up to £300,000 only
For home movers:
- Before April 2025: No stamp duty on properties up to £250,000
- After April 2025: No stamp duty on properties up to £125,000 only
These changes have created a March 2025 deadline that’s driving significant activity in the first quarter of this year.
Housing Investment
The 2024 budget allocated £5 billion for housing development, including £3.1 billion for the Affordable Homes Programme. While long-term investments like these take time to deliver results, they signal government priorities around addressing housing supply.
What Stayed the Same
Importantly, capital gains tax on property sales remained unchanged in 2024, despite widespread speculation. This provided some relief for landlords and second-home owners who had feared additional tax increases.
What Might the 2025 Budget Bring?
As we approach 26 November, several potential changes are being discussed that could significantly impact the property market.
Property Tax Reform
Multiple reports suggest the Chancellor is considering reforms to property taxation. According to St. James’s Place, speculation includes:
- Spreading stamp duty payments across several years rather than as a lump sum
- Applying capital gains tax to main homes above a certain value
- Creating new, higher council tax bands
Propertymark has called for stamp duty reform, arguing that the current £300,000 first-time buyer threshold is insufficient in many parts of the country, particularly London and the South East. They’ve urged the government to either lower stamp duty or update bands more frequently to reflect property value changes.
Landlord Taxation
Private landlords face potential additional costs. Reports suggest the government is considering:
- Introducing National Insurance on rental income (potentially around 8%)
- Further reductions to capital gains tax allowances
- Additional stamp duty surcharges for investment properties
These measures, if introduced, could prompt more landlords to exit the market, further reducing rental supply and potentially pushing rents higher.
Interest Rate Outlook
While not directly part of the budget, the Bank of England’s monetary policy is influenced by budget decisions. The base rate currently sits at 4.75% following cuts in August and November 2024. According to Equals Money, many economists predict at least four more rate cuts in 2025, potentially bringing rates down to around 3.75% by year-end.
Lower interest rates would improve mortgage affordability and support house price growth, but this depends on inflation remaining under control and the budget not introducing measures that stoke inflationary pressures.
What Should Buyers Do?
If You're a First-Time Buyer
The April 2025 stamp duty changes create a clear decision point. If you’re looking at properties between £300,000 and £425,000, completing before the end of March could save you thousands. However, don’t rush into the wrong property just to beat a deadline.
Consider speaking with mortgage advisers to understand what you can afford and whether locking in a competitive rate before any potential budget changes makes sense for your situation.
For properties under £300,000, the April changes won’t affect you, so focus on finding the right home rather than worrying about deadlines.
If You're a Home Mover
With stamp duty thresholds dropping in April, properties between £125,000 and £250,000 will incur new costs. Budget carefully for these additional expenses if you’re planning to move in the coming months.
The period between now and the budget announcement on 26 November may see some buyers and sellers adopting a wait-and-see approach. This could create opportunities for decisive buyers who are ready to move, as you’ll face less competition.
Watch for Budget Announcements
Once the budget is delivered, assess any changes to mortgage interest relief, first-time buyer incentives, or stamp duty structures. These could alter your calculations about when and what to buy.
What Should Sellers Do?
Price Realistically
Market conditions remain competitive with high levels of available stock. Getting an accurate property valuation is essential. Properties priced correctly for current conditions are selling, while overpriced homes languish on the market.
Expect Q1 Activity
The March 2025 stamp duty deadline is driving a surge in first-quarter activity, particularly for properties between £300,000 and £425,000 where first-time buyer savings are most significant. If you’re thinking of selling, being on the market during this period could work in your favour.
Consider Post-Budget Adjustments
After 26 November, you may need to adjust your strategy based on what the budget contains. If stamp duty reforms or other property tax changes are announced, work with your estate agent to understand how these might affect your property’s attractiveness to buyers and adjust your pricing or marketing approach accordingly.
The Broader Housing Market Outlook
Despite budget uncertainty, most forecasters remain cautiously optimistic about the housing market in 2025. The Office for Budget Responsibility expects house price growth of around 2.8% in 2025, with prices continuing to rise in line with earnings growth.
Several factors support continued market activity:
- Improving affordability: Falling mortgage rates and wage growth are making homeownership more accessible. For new mortgages, monthly costs as a percentage of earnings have fallen from 33% to 29% over the past year, according to Nationwide's analysis.
- Undersupply of homes: The UK continues to face a housing shortage, with demand consistently outstripping supply. This fundamental imbalance supports property values even when other economic conditions are challenging.
- Government housebuilding commitments: Labour's pledge to build 1.5 million homes by 2029 signals policy focus on addressing supply issues, though delivery will take time.
- Rental market pressures: With rental demand remaining strong and supply constrained, some renters are motivated to buy if they can make the numbers work, supporting transaction volumes.
How Michael Anthony Can Help
Navigating budget changes and market uncertainty requires local expertise and professional guidance. At Michael Anthony Estate Agents, we’ve been helping buyers and sellers through changing market conditions since 1989. With over 30 years of experience, we understand how government policy affects property decisions.
Whether you’re wondering if you should buy before the stamp duty changes in April, trying to price your home correctly in an uncertain market, or simply want to understand what your property is worth today, our team provides honest, expert advice.
We offer free, no-obligation property valuations, experienced guidance on selling your home, and connections to trusted mortgage advisers through our financial services who can help you understand your options.
The upcoming budget will bring clarity to many current uncertainties, but property decisions shouldn’t be based on speculation alone. Getting expert, local advice tailored to your specific circumstances is more valuable than trying to time the market perfectly.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the Autumn Budget 2025 and will it affect the housing market?
The Autumn Budget 2025 is scheduled for Wednesday, 26 November 2025. Yes, it could significantly affect the housing market depending on what the Chancellor announces. Potential changes include property tax reforms, stamp duty adjustments, and new taxes on landlords. The 2024 Budget demonstrated how quickly budget decisions can impact buyer and seller behaviour, so it’s worth paying attention to the announcements and adjusting your property plans accordingly.
Should I buy before the stamp duty changes in April 2025?
This depends on your property budget and circumstances. If you’re a first-time buyer looking at properties between £300,000 and £425,000, buying before 1 April 2025 could save you thousands in stamp duty. For a £350,000 property, you’d save £2,500. However, don’t rush into buying the wrong property just to beat the deadline. The right home is more important than short-term tax savings. For properties under £300,000, the April changes won’t affect you at all.
How might the 2025 Budget affect landlords and buy-to-let investors?
Reports suggest the government is considering introducing National Insurance on rental income (around 8%), which could cost landlords approximately £2 billion collectively. There’s also speculation about further capital gains tax changes and additional stamp duty surcharges. These measures would increase costs for landlords and could prompt more to sell their properties, reducing rental supply. However, nothing is confirmed until the budget is actually delivered on 26 November.
Will house prices fall because of the budget?
Most forecasters don’t expect house prices to fall significantly. The Office for Budget Responsibility predicts 2.8% growth in 2025, while major property firms forecast increases between 1% and 4%. The fundamental shortage of homes continues to support prices. While budget measures might temporarily slow activity or affect certain market segments, falling mortgage rates and improving affordability are supporting the broader market.
What happens if interest rates don't fall as expected?
If the Bank of England cuts rates more slowly than anticipated, mortgage rates would remain higher for longer, which could dampen buyer demand and slow house price growth. The budget itself could influence this; if the Chancellor’s measures are seen as inflationary, the Bank might keep rates higher to control rising prices. This is why the interaction between fiscal policy (the budget) and monetary policy (interest rates) is so important for the housing market.
How can I prepare for potential budget changes?
Start by getting your finances in order and understanding what you can afford. Speak with a mortgage adviser about current rates and whether fixing a deal now makes sense. If you’re selling, get an up-to-date property valuation to understand realistic pricing. Stay informed by following budget announcements on 26 November and be prepared to adjust your plans based on what’s actually announced rather than speculation. Working with experienced estate agents who understand how policy changes affect local markets can help you make informed decisions.
Ready to Get Started?
Get in touch with our team today to discuss how budget changes might affect your property plans and what steps you should take next. We’re here to help you navigate whatever the Chancellor announces on 26 November